ACTION NOT MATCHING WORDS AS 1.5° TARGET SLIPS AWAY
World Meteorological Organization
A United Nations report released October 24 says that the world is on track to miss its agreed climate targets by a wide margin. As reported by Chico Harlan in the Washington Post, the Emissions Gap report report warns that a “quantum leap in ambition” is needed to prevent the world blowing past all targets for limiting global warming.
The report, says Harlan, is a definitive, annual assessment of the planet’s trajectory which tries to take stock of both the planet’s future warming given policies in place and the additional steps that would be necessary to meet climate goals. This year’s report chides world leaders and policymakers for both setting national goals that are insufficient and then not fulfilling even those pledges.
According to the report, the sum of all national pledges to date put the Earth on a path to warm by an estimated 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century. This compares to pledges under the 2015 Paris agreement to hold warming to below 2 degrees Celsius, compared to preindustrial levels, while aiming for an even more ambitious target of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The report suggests, per Harlan, that If countries also adhere to all nonbinding, long-term net zero pledges in addition to their national targets, warming could be limited to 1.9 degrees Celsius. But they are so far not taking the steps to put those goals within reach.
Already gone
Harlan notes that many scientists say that the 1.5 goal has already been lost. This is reinforced by data from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, which shows that global monthly temperatures have exceeded preindustrial levels by 1.5 degrees Celsius for 14 consecutive months. Further, the World Meteorological Organization reports that 2024 is on track to be the warmest year on record, with the global average near surface temperature even higher than in 2023, the current warmest year ever.
WMO’s global temperature analysis covers January to September 2024. Setting the tone for the upcoming UN Climate Change conference, COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, “Today, the World Meteorological Organization and partners tell us that 2024 is on track to be the hottest year ever recorded – almost two months before it ends … Humanity’s torching the planet and paying the price.”
Read more here.
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PERSPECTIVE-ALTERING FINDINGS FROM THE IEA
The International Energy Agency just released its Energy Technology Perspectives 2024, a report which maps out the current state of clean energy manufacturing and trade and how they are expected to evolve over time. It contains some amazing findings and projections, including:
- The global market for the top six mass-manufactured clean energy technologies (solar PV, wind turbines, electric cars, batteries, electrolysers and heat pumps) is set to rise from $700 billion in 2023 to more than $2 trillion by 2035 – close to the value of the world’s crude oil market in recent years.
- Global trade in these clean technologies is also expected to rise sharply. In a decade’s time, it more than triples to reach $575 billion, more than 50% larger than the global trade in natural gas today.
- China is set to remain the world’s clean energy manufacturing powerhouse for the foreseeable future. Its exports of top clean technologies are on track to exceed $340 billion in 2035, which is roughly equivalent to the projected oil export revenue this year of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates combined.
- Today, countries in Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa account for less than 5% of the value generated from producing clean technologies.
- A single journey by a large container ship filled with solar PV modules can provide the means to generate the same amount of electricity as the natural gas from more than 50 large LNG tankers or the coal from more than 100 large bulk ships.
- Today, around half of all maritime trade in clean energy technologies passes through the Strait of Malacca, which connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans. This is significantly more than the roughly 20% of fossil fuel trade that passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The online summary is worth a look for the world-class infographics alone, but there’s much more.
Read it here.
DONALD TRUMP’S ENERGY POLICY
Cipher
We’re an American company, but we prefer to keep our content focused on topics of importance beyond our back yard. Yet no one in the world can ignore the recent U.S. presidential election and its implications for the energy transition and climate change more broadly.
A great roll-up of president-elect Donald Trump’s campaign rhetoric, policy positions, and analysts’ assessments comes from Cipher, a publication of Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy. Writers Tory Lysik and Amena Saiyid predict that under Trump, the speed of the clean energy transition will slow down, but won’t change direction.
Cipher
They write: “A significant open question is how Trump will tackle the Inflation Reduction Act, the signature climate law passed under President Biden, with nearly $400 billion in tax credits and grants for clean energy and technologies.
“Trump could attempt to undo the law but would need filibuster-proof Republican majorities in both chambers of the U.S. Congress to fully repeal the IRA. He could also revise tax credit rules to benefit fossil fuel-related industries, but such regulatory undertakings are time consuming and require public feedback.
“On the international stage, Trump may end U.S. contributions to the Green Climate Fund, which supports efforts by low-to-middle income countries to mitigate climate impacts. During his previous term in office, Trump pulled back U.S. participation in international climate diplomacy, including withdrawing from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.”
Cipher’s charts at right show how the authors expect Trump’s policies to unfold along key dimensions of energy and climate. At least for the United States, the authors conclude, the future for the energy transition looks rockier with Trump in the White House.
Read more.
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